Sunny weather greeted the Farm Progress Show in Illinois this week, but farmers’ moods were far from bright. Low crop prices and tariffs created tension across the agricultural sector.
Scott Metzger, a central Ohio farmer, said the market for American crops is “pretty nasty.” He grows soybeans, corn, and wheat and is hesitant to buy new equipment this year.
The U.S. is expecting bumper corn and soybean harvests this fall. However, with China yet to buy a single shipment, farmers are unsure where surplus crops will go.
Trade tensions with China, fueled by former President Donald Trump’s policies, continue to chill the U.S.-China agricultural relationship. This uncertainty leaves many farmers anxious about sales and prices.
Gerrit Marx, CEO of CNH Industrial NV, said U.S. tariffs make the North American farm market highly uncertain. Meanwhile, European and Asian markets are showing improvement.
Some companies with a major presence in past farm shows skipped this year. Seed maker Corteva and fertilizer giant Nutrien did not attend, signaling caution in the industry.
“The fields will all be green. The question is: what grows, for what purpose, and at what price?” Marx said. “We’re in a period where farmers are figuring it out.”
The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts a record corn crop for the season starting in September. Soybean yields are expected to reach a new high despite smaller planting areas.
Depressed crop prices and rising tariffs on fertilizer have raised costs, straining farmers’ finances. The American Soybean Association warned growers face a “trade and financial precipice.”
The National Corn Growers Association highlighted an emerging economic crisis in rural America. Credit conditions weakened in the second quarter, and farmer bankruptcies are increasing.
New machinery displayed at the farm show includes tractors with internet connections and air-conditioned cabins. Despite the technology, few farmers were looking to purchase big-ticket equipment.
Metzger said his farm, managed by six generations of his family, is upgrading field drainage but delaying major equipment purchases. “We’re running stuff longer than we used to,” he explained.
Machinery makers face higher U.S. manufacturing costs due to tariffs on steel and aluminum. Deere is laying off workers in Iowa and Illinois but plans nearly $20 billion investment in the coming decade.
Marx said the current year may be a “trough” for farm machinery, but business could rebound as farmers adapt to trade changes. Smaller investments like parts and tires continue, he noted.
Matt Jungmann of Farm Progress said farmers still make essential purchases despite cutting back on larger equipment. “There’s still stuff that has to be done,” he added.
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The Trump administration boosted biofuel blending requirements for soy and corn and expanded crop insurance under its One Big Beautiful Bill Act. These steps offered limited relief.
Eric Hansotia, CEO of AGCO, stressed the need for a China trade deal. “We have a lot of crops this year. A deal would unlock the market,” he said, highlighting farmers’ reliance on exports.
