Hiring over the past year wasn’t as strong as first reported, according to new figures from the Labor Department. A preliminary revision released Tuesday shows that job growth was overstated by nearly a million positions, suggesting the labor market may be softer than many believed.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics now estimates that U.S. employers added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months ending in March than originally tallied. While economists expected a downward adjustment, the scale of the revision landed at the higher end of forecasts.
Goldman Sachs analysts, in a note published Sunday, had projected a revision of 550,000 to 950,000 jobs. On NBC’s Meet the Press that same day, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he anticipated a cut of up to 800,000.
Each year, the government revises its monthly jobs numbers by checking them against more complete state tax records. The new figure is still preliminary; the final revision will be released early next year.
The update has drawn unusual attention this time, coming just weeks after President Trump ousted the former BLS commissioner following a disappointing jobs report. Trump accused the agency—without offering evidence—of intentionally skewing data to damage his economic record.
The Federal Reserve is also watching these numbers closely as it weighs whether to lower interest rates at its meeting next week. Policymakers are widely expected to trim the benchmark rate by a quarter point in hopes of cushioning the economy from further job losses.
Markets, however, showed little reaction to Tuesday’s report. The three major U.S. stock indexes were largely flat in morning trading.
Recent monthly jobs data have already pointed to cooling momentum. The Labor Department reported that employers added only 22,000 jobs in August, and June saw the first net job loss since the winter of 2020 at the height of the pandemic.
The sharp annual revision only adds to concerns about the labor market’s resilience. At the same time, Trump’s criticism of the BLS has fueled worries about whether the agency could come under political pressure, undermining public trust in its data.
Last month, Trump nominated conservative economist E.J. Antoni, formerly with the Heritage Foundation, to lead the bureau. His nomination must still be confirmed by the Senate, and critics have raised questions about both his experience and his ability to protect the agency’s independence, according to npr.
