Polymarket says Texas Democrat James Talarico has an 11 percent chance of winning over his rival, Republican Ken Paxton, when it comes to the state’s next Senate race.
Talarico is in a tight race against Republican, Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general, and has given Democrats hope of winning statewide in the otherwise GOP-dominated Lone Star State.
Polymarket posted a chart showing the polling changes, captioned “James Talarico surges to an all-time high in the Texas Senate race, as Democrats seek to flip a seat Republicans have dominated for decades.” One X user replied: “It’s happening. Talarico is turning Texas blue!!!” Many responses angrily disagreed with the results of the prediction from the large betting site.
Texas state Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat and former schoolteacher with a rising national profile, joined a widening U.S. Senate race that already has two prominent challengers trying to unseat Republican Sen. John Cornyn.
Talarico, 36, has gained popularity in the Texas House through viral social media posts challenging Republican-led policies such as private school vouchers and requiring the Ten Commandments in classrooms. It is the first statewide race for Talarico, who flipped a seat in Austin’s booming suburbs in 2018.
It’s happening. Talarico is turning Texas blue!!!
— Donk Media ♻️™ (@donkoclock) September 15, 2026
He sought and received the Democratic nomination in a field that includes former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, who ran again after unsuccessfully challenging Republican Sen. Ted Cruz last year.
“I get the sense that there is a deep hunger across the political spectrum for a fundamentally different kind of politics,” Talarico said in an interview ahead of his announcement. “It’s been 10 years now of Trumpian politics, politics as a blood sport … and there is a hunger 10 years later for a return to more timeless values of sincerity and honesty and compassion and respect.”
Cornyn, who is running for a fifth term, is facing the most competitive reelection campaign of his career against the state’s Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton was impeached in 2023 by the Republican-led House of Representatives on articles including bribery and abuse of public trust.
Paxton ultimately was acquitted in a historic impeachment trial and now is trying to position himself as an outsider to the political establishment more aligned with the state’s Republican voters.
Democrats have not won a statewide election in Texas in more than 30 years. Although former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke came within 3 percentage points of defeating Cruz in 2018, the margin of victory for Republicans have grown in the years since. President Donald Trump won the state last year by more than 13 percentage points.
Talarico wants to reveal depositions involving Ken Paxton, his Republican opponent, as part of an ongoing effort to keep the focus on Paxton’s history of scandals.
The depositions involve a civil case where Unity Resources, a mineral assets company, was accused of fraud. Paxton was connected to Unity but not a defendant, and the case was settled.
Talarico’s campaign confirmed it asked a court in August to release the documents. The Democratic state representative is counting on voters recoiling from past accusations against Paxton, the Texas attorney general, even though similar tactics have failed in previous campaigns.
In addition to seeking the depositions, Talarico recently resurfaced video of Paxton pocketing an expensive pen at a courthouse security checkpoint. Talarico has also talked about how Paxton was impeached, although Paxton was later acquitted, and how he faced criminal charges for securities fraud, which ended with an agreement with prosecutors involving restitution payments but no admission of guilt.
