Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has emerged as the unlikely contender for the Nobel Peace Prize after President Donald Trump spent a year campaigning about not receiving the award.
Kalshi, a sports betting site, reported on Monday that Carney had a 14% chance to take the prize. The prime minister leads the humanitarian organization, Doctors Without Borders, at 10% and Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms at 13%.
“Donald Trump was the favorite to win last year, but given what’s happened this year in Iran, we can’t see that happening again,” wrote Covers, a prediction-market site. “He may well have decent odds at sports books, but Kalshi gives a more realistic representation of his chance of winning the prize in 2026. That chance is near-zero.”
The move to humiliate the president comes amid a bitter trade war between the U.S. and Canada. Recently, the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on some Canadian goods and announced additional restrictions on Canadian products and companies seeking U.S. government contracts.
Trump has repeatedly thrown insults at Carney, calling him a “governor” instead of the prime minister, and pushed to rename Lake Ontario as “Lake America.” Carney responded to the insults more diplomatically, presenting Canada as a sovereign power willing to resist American economic pressure while leaving the door open to negotiations.
Carney has spent months pushing back against Trump amid an escalating trade war after the U.S. president attempted to restrict the country’s ability to make trade deals with other nations. In January, Carney received a standing ovation at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he denounced Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on imports from European allies until the U.S. reached a deal to acquire Greenland.
“Canada strongly opposes tariffs over Greenland and calls for focused talks to achieve our shared objectives of security and prosperity in the Arctic,” said Carney. The prime minister also talked about the “rupture in the world order…where the large, main power, geopolitics, is submitted to no limits, no constraints.”
On Monday, Carney had dropped to sixth place, at 7.6%, and Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms were leading by 14%. Trump, 80, has repeatedly demanded that he get the award due to his intervention that seemingly ended eight wars.
Deal maker-in-chief
Earlier this month, Trump — speaking from the Oval Office — vented his frustration about not winning the prize during a signing ceremony. Trump started by claiming he has “ended eight wars” globally, before turning to someone off camera and saying, “I hope you’re proud of me, I ended eight wars and get no credit for it”.
“I ended eight wars, did I get the Nobel prize? No. Although the person who got it was nice enough, well, that she gave it to me,” Trump said, referring to Venezuelan opposition leader MarÃa Corina Machado.
“She said nobody in the history of the Nobel Prize deserves it more than you,” added the president. “But in Norway, they don’t like me because I think they think that I’m a little conservative.”
