Coffee drinkers are facing rising costs as prices jumped 14.5% in July compared with the previous year, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that a pound of ground coffee now costs $8.41 on average.
The recent increase occurred before a new 50% tariff on imports from Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer. Experts predict this tariff will further raise retail prices in the coming months.
Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo said tariffs could push the cost of ground coffee up by 15% to 20% at stores. Retailers and importers may look to suppliers in Vietnam and Colombia to offset higher costs.
Before the tariffs, coffee prices were already climbing due to extreme weather in top producing countries. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization reported a 38.8% increase in 2024 compared with the previous year.
The weather disruptions affected harvests and supply chains, reducing available coffee for global markets. These conditions contributed to higher prices and signaled a challenging year ahead for the coffee industry.
Billy Roberts, a senior economist at CoBank, told Yahoo Finance that rising prices may change where consumers drink coffee rather than how much they consume. “Consumers are going to continue to have their coffee. It’s just a question of where they ultimately do so.”
Some consumers may switch from cafes to brewing coffee at home to manage costs. Home preparation allows them to stretch budgets while still enjoying daily coffee. Analysts say this trend may continue as prices remain high.
Importers are exploring alternative suppliers to cope with tariffs. Vietnam and Colombia are likely destinations, offering similar quality beans, though logistical costs and shipping times may affect final prices.
Rising coffee prices are also linked to growing global demand. Consumption continues to rise in North America, Europe, and Asia, adding further pressure on supply chains and increasing retail costs.
Retailers face challenges balancing prices and demand. Some coffee shops may adjust menus, while grocery stores may see increased sales of bulk or pre-ground coffee as consumers try to reduce costs.
Economic analysts warn that the combination of tariffs, weather disruptions, and strong demand is unlikely to ease soon. Prices may continue climbing over the next year unless major changes occur in supply or trade policies.
The coffee market’s current situation highlights how international trade decisions impact everyday consumers. Policies like tariffs affect prices directly, and shifts in sourcing can cause additional costs across the supply chain.
Consumers may feel the pinch in monthly grocery bills, with ground coffee becoming one of the most visible products affected. Coffee lovers may need to adjust habits, including brand choices or home brewing methods.
Long-term effects could include greater reliance on alternative suppliers and more investment in local or regional coffee production. These changes may stabilize prices eventually, but short-term costs are expected to remain high.
As coffee prices rise, experts recommend monitoring price trends and exploring different suppliers or brewing methods. Being proactive can help consumers manage costs while continuing to enjoy coffee daily.
Overall, the coffee industry faces a mix of trade policy challenges, weather impacts, and rising global demand. These factors are creating persistent upward pressure on prices that will affect consumers in multiple ways.
Retailers, importers, and consumers are adapting to these challenges, but the combination of tariffs and supply constraints suggests that higher coffee prices may continue well into 2026.
